AoE2 Match Predictor
Win chance for a ranked 1v1 game from 35,865 games on patch 185872
Enter both players' ratings and civs, and the map. The predictor starts from the Elo gap, then adds how strong each civ is on that map with player skill taken out, and how the two civs have done against each other. Leave a rating empty to compare the civs alone.
Can you trust it?
We checked the predictor on 7,171 of the most recent ranked games, using only the 28,692 games played before them. When it called a player the favourite, here's how often that player actually won:
| Predicted chance | Average prediction | Actually won | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 52.4% | 52.3% | 4,417 |
| 55–60% | 56.9% | 58.2% | 1,908 |
| 60–65% | 62.0% | 59.6% | 492 |
| 65–70% | 67.1% | 65.6% | 157 |
| 70–80% | 73.9% | 74.8% | 131 |
| 80–100% | 88.6% | 92.4% | 66 |
Matching columns mean the percentages are honest. Most ranked games are close, because matchmaking pairs players of similar rating, so most predictions sit between 50% and 60%. Adding civs and matchups predicts these games slightly better than rating alone (Brier score 0.2437 against 0.2444, lower is better). The honest takeaway: your rating decides far more games than your civ does. Checked 10 seconds ago on patch 185872.
